OGOR Forecast from July 16, 2024 regarding Maize, Sunflower, Wheat, Barley and Rapeseed production

While the production potential for corn and sunflower currently holds, the next three weeks will be high-risk. In fact, in the far south, southeast, and part of the west, deep water reserves are at their lowest. The forecasts of heat waves for the coming weeks, combined with these soil limitations, will be detrimental to non-irrigated crops. For irrigated crops, we will need to monitor the impact of high heat on corn pollination and the sensitivity of soybeans to low air humidity. The only hope is the arrival of rains from the west, where in countries like France, Germany, or Belgium, excessive rains are worrying farmers.

While the production potential for corn and sunflower currently holds, the next three weeks will be high-risk. In fact, in the far south, southeast, and part of the west, deep water reserves are at their lowest. The forecasts of heat waves for the coming weeks, combined with these soil limitations, will be detrimental to non-irrigated crops. For irrigated crops, we will need to monitor the impact of high heat on corn pollination and the sensitivity of soybeans to low air humidity. The only hope is the arrival of rains from the west, where in countries like France, Germany, or Belgium, excessive rains are worrying farmers.

Autumn wheat experienced favorable development in areas with rainfall and modest growth in many regions affected by soil drought and high temperatures in the autumn of 2023 and early 2024. However, the crops have significantly recovered in April in most agricultural areas, so the yields are expected to be acceptable, but not sufficient to cover the expenses incurred by the farms.

For barley, the soil moisture deficit since sowing, combined with high autumn temperatures that favored pest and disease attacks, particularly dwarf virus, will contribute to modest yields in the most exposed areas of the south, southeast, and east of the country. The rains in April and early May have helped the barley crops recover, so the yields are expected to be reasonable.

For rapeseed, the soil moisture deficit since sowing, which has intensified in many regions during the growing season, has led to uneven emergence, low plant density per square meter, and uneven flowering and maturation. All these factors have reduced the chances of successful crops that would provide farmers with yields of over 3.5 tons per hectare, yields that would have been closer to covering the expenses they incurred.